By ANDY VANCE
Issue Date: March 26, 2012 | Issue 13 | Volume 84
– Corn Belt temperatures mostly “much above normal.”
– Third of Texas corn planted; 12% of Kansas wheat jointed.
– Early planting could affect crop insurance.
CALLING it the fourth warmest winter on record for the contiguous 48 states, the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released a report earlier this month detailing much-warmer-than-average temperatures for the preceding three months, in addition to significantly drier conditions than normal in many parts of the country.
Twenty-seven states in the northern Plains, Midwest and East Coast experienced statistically warmer-than-average winter temperatures (Map), according to NOAA. The average U.S. temperature for the lower 48 states was 3.9 degrees F above the 20th-century average, making the winter of 2011-12 the warmest since 2000. Average nationwide precipitation was 0.78 in. below the long-term average.
Indeed, while homeowners in many Corn Belt states spent the past week breaking out lawnmowers and moving up landscaping plans, farmers were considering field work, in many cases getting planters into fields well sooner than normal — perhaps sooner than considered wise.
In fact, one elevator manager from Illinois reported sighting 15 planters rolling between Springfield and Hillsboro, Ill., last Wednesday. Corn planting in the South is well underway, with 33% of the Texas corn crop planted as of March 18.
The question, however, is what effect, if any, a warm winter has on crop production the following year.
According to Scott Irwin and Darrel Good with the University of Illinois, the net effect appears to be very small, as there is a small negative correlation between average winter temperatures in Illinois and Iowa and state average trend-adjusted corn yields the following year. In other words, above-average winter temperatures were associated with a pretty wide range of corn yields.
Furthermore, Irwin and Good found that when looking at the five warmest winters in Illinois and Iowa from 1960 to 2011, average yields and individual yields were both well above and well below the five-year statewide average.
The impact of a warm winter this year, therefore, might well fall into two categories: (1) farmers will plant early and suffer crop damage from a late-season frost or other weather-related calamity or (2) the crop will be pressured from insects or diseases that normally are killed off in winter.
Regarding the latter, a number of university extension educators spent much of the last week encouraging growers to scout fields early and often for a wide range of possible issues.
Ohio State University Extension entomologist Ron Hammond, for example, warned that bean leaf beetles, corn flea beetles and alfalfa beetles all will be seen much earlier than normal this year due to the above-average winter temperatures.
“If the insect arrives or begins feeding when crops are smaller in size, a greater potential for injury exists,” Hammond said, noting that warmer weather means insects will appear sooner, feed earlier and become more active in the early spring months this year.
Crop insurance implications
Regardless of warnings from climatologists that cold weather, including the potential for frost, is still possible, farmers will undoubtedly consider planting several weeks earlier than normal this year. If they do, they should consider the impact early planting could have on their crop insurance coverage.
Noting that farmers purchase crop insurance for crops such as corn and soybeans by March 15, University of Wisconsin Extension agriculture economics specialist Paul Mitchell pointed out last week that crop insurance policies specify an “earliest planting date.” The official earliest planting date from the Risk Management Agency varies by crop and by county, so farmers should pay close attention to the specifics of their policy contract.
“If a farmer chooses to plant earlier than the specified earliest planting date for the insured crop in their county, the crop is still insured, and losses will be covered as long as the farmer follows all the remaining contract specifications,” Mitchell said. “However, the farmer gives up eligibility for replant payments that are part of the standard yield protection and revenue protection included in those combo policies.”
In other words, farmers might give up insurance coverage for replants necessitated by a late killing frost or excessive moisture — considerable risks in an extreme early planting scenario.
