Washington consultant Jim Wiesemeyer is asked many questions during
his frequent travels around the country. These are his typical
responses to queries about upcoming elections and farm policy issues.

Q: What will happen to estate tax provisions after 2012?

A: Current language expires at the end of this year, and if it isn’t
changed, the estate tax exemption goes from the current $5.12 million
mark to $1 million — equivalent to around 150 acres of Iowa
farmland! Congress will likely extend the current language via a
lame-duck session of Congress after the Nov. 6 elections. That is
when lawmakers must deal with the expiring 2001 and 2003 tax
cuts. The unknown is how many years the estate tax language will
be extended — it will not likely be permanent. Some Democratic
lawmakers want to lower the exemption to around $3.5 million.
Q: Do you still believe the new farm bill will be completed this year?
A: Yes, though I am in the minority on this one. The biggest
hurdle is for the so-called leaders in Congress — both Democrats
and Republicans — to give floor time for farm bill debate. There
will be some controversial issues/votes in that debate. Some lawmakers,
especially Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), do
not want to consider any measure that election-year lawmakers
will have to vote on. That is not the definition of leadership. So,
while I still believe the Senate and House Ag panels will report out
a farm bill from their respective committees, the question remains
as to whether floor time will be allocated to vote on it.
Q: Are farmers losing faith in USDA reports?
A: It depends on what state you visit. But USDA sources tell me
that the rate of response to some USDA surveys has been decreasing.
(I also learned farmers in some states consistently underreport
their production, one such state being North Dakota.)
Farmers are especially critical of USDA Grain Stocks Reports for
being so volatile. And they do not accept the usual USDA/NASS
explanations for that volatility.

Q: Who will win the presidential contest this year?
A: It’s still too early for a definitive response on that. Heck, the
GOP still doesn’t have their official candidate, and may not for
more than a few months. My hunch now is that President Obama
will be re-elected. But it mostly depends on (1) the economic situation
ahead of the election and (2) the impact of the Hispanic voter
— this group could well decide not only the presidential election,
but also a few key Senate races. Republicans have gone out of their
way to upset this growing group of voters. That is why I say the
only way Republicans have a chance of defeating Obama is if they
have a Hispanic candidate on the vice presidential ticket, namely
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.). Frankly, the GOP would have higher
odds of winning the presidency if they could put on the ballot,
“Candidate to be determined after the elections.”
Q: Will there be a brokered/contested GOP convention?
A: The odds of a contested GOP convention are quite low. But
the so-called “smart” people monitoring the GOP presidential
primary to date have been so wrong, so oft en that they could
qualify for being in this Congress! So, while this is not impossible,
it is also not probable — especially because Mitt Romney won last
week’s Michigan primary.

Q: Will Sen. Lugar win the GOP primary?
A: Yes. But I will tell you this — he has spirited opposition and
has had to confront his moderate positions. His opponents are
attacking him for not having an official home in Indiana.