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October 10, 2012
By: AgWeb.com Editors
In the Corn Belt, cool weather prevails in the wake of a cold front’s passage, according to USDA’s Joint Ag Weather Facility. In the vicinity of the cold front, rain showers are affecting the lower Great Lakes region. Meanwhile, a record-setting harvest pace continues in the upper Midwest, where more than three-quarters of both corn and soybeans had been harvested by October 7 in Iowa, Minnesota, and South Dakota.

In the West, warm, dry weather favors fieldwork, including Northwestern winter wheat planting and the Arizona cotton harvest. However, developing drought is hampering wheat emergence of some rain-fed winter wheat.

On the Plains, dry weather prevails. Across the northwestern half of the Plains, drought is limiting winter wheat emergence. On October 7, emergence was at least 20 percentage points behind the 5-year average pace in South Dakota (8% emerged versus the average of 49%), Nebraska (31 vs. 62%), Colorado (36 vs. 57%), and Montana (14 vs. 35%).

In the South, dry weather favors an acceleration of fieldwork, including cotton, soybean, and peanut harvesting.

Looking Ahead
As the week progresses, cool air will retreat northward, with below-normal temperatures mostly confined to the Midwest and Northeast by late in the week.

Over the weekend, above-normal temperatures will develop from the Plains to the East Coast. Meanwhile, fairly tranquil weather will yield to increasingly stormy conditions.

On Thursday, showers will develop across the Southwest, expanding into the central and southern Plains and Midwest by the weekend. Late-week rainfall could become heavy in the Great Lakes region, where totals may exceed 2 inches. Elsewhere, much-needed precipitation will also overspread the Pacific Northwest, starting on Friday.

The NWS 6- to 10-day outlook for October 15-19 calls for warmer-than-normal weather nationwide, except for near-normal temperatures in the Northwest. Meanwhile, above-normal precipitation across the majority of the U.S., including the Northwest and from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast, will contrast with drier-than-normal conditions across the central and southern High Plains and the Southwest.

By Bruce Anderson, University of Nebraska agronomist
October 5, 2012

If you haven’t experienced a freeze yet this fall, you soon will. When plants freeze, changes occur in their metabolism and composition that can poison livestock. But you can prevent problems.

Sorghum-related plants, like cane, sudangrass, shattercane, and milo can be highly toxic for a few days after frost. Freezing breaks plant cell membranes. This breakage allows the chemicals that form prussic acid to mix together and release this poisonous compound rapidly. Livestock eating recently frozen sorghums can get a sudden, high dose of prussic acid and potentially die. Fortunately, prussic acid soon turns into a gas and disappears into the air. So wait 3 to 5 days after a freeze before grazing sorghums; the chance of poisoning then becomes much lower.

Freezing also slows down metabolism in all plants. This stress sometimes permits nitrates to accumulate in plants that are still growing, especially grasses like oats, millet, and sudangrass. This build-up usually isn’t hazardous to grazing animals, but green chop or hay cut right after a freeze can be more dangerous.

Alfalfa reacts two ways to a hard freeze, down close to twenty degrees, cold enough to cause plants to wilt. Nitrate levels can increase, but rarely to hazardous levels. Freezing also makes alfalfa more likely to cause bloat for a few days after the frost. Then, several days later, after plants begin to wilt or grow again, alfalfa becomes less likely to cause bloat. So waiting to graze alfalfa until well after a hard freeze is a good, safer management practice.

Frost causes important changes in forages so manage them carefully for safe feed.

Oct 02, 2012
At least three suicides by dairy producers have occurred this year in California’s Kings County, which adjoins Tulare County and makes up part of the nation’s No. 1 milk-producing region.

Financial stress is not only widespread in California’s San Joaquin Valley but across the U.S. There are reports that some dairies are losing $100,000 per month. Many expect this year’s dairy farm troubles to approach the severity of 2009’s crash-and-burn ordeal. Equity – or what was left of it – is vanishing, leaving many producers with little to show for years of hard work. Congress apparently doesn’t care enough about the industry’s woes, since it couldn’t or wouldn’t pass a farm bill before it recessed a couple of weeks ago.

So, it’s not unreasonable to ask if dairying is worth the hassle anymore.

I posed the question to Charlie de Groot, a third-generation dairy producer from Fresno, Calif., and one of Dairy Today’s 2012 Dollars & Sense columnists. His family operation milks 2,400 cows.

“In the short term, no, dairying is not worth the hassle, but we can’t just close the doors and move on to something else,” de Groot told me. “It’s not easy to get in and out of. A majority of dairy operations are family-owned and -operated, and so it isn’t just a job that we can quit. It’s a lifestyle that we’ve invested our time, talents and treasure into.”

That’s a pretty sobering assessment from a man who’s only 33 years old, with a wife and four children. Makes me want to look for help and hope. Which brings me to where I am today – at World Dairy Expo in Madison, Wis.

World Dairy Expo is the dairy industry’s show of shows. This dairy Disneyland at the Alliant Energy Center brings back the shine to the industry, if only for a few days. From Oct. 2 through Oct. 6, more than 65,000 people from 90 countries will visit Expo. They’ll come for the cattle show judging, award winners, educational seminars, the best in cattle genetics – and so much more.

Some 860 animal health, nutrition, equipment, marketing and dairy service companies will share their best and latest products and services. Millions of dollars have been invested in those companies and on these grounds. In the Madison area alone, the show has an estimated impact of $15 million on the economy. Behind the scenes, there will be more high-stakes meetings than most people would ever guess.

World Dairy Expo reflects the industry’s expertise, technology and commitment. It reveals the incredible focus of driven, intelligent people. It proves the U.S. dairy industry still dazzles, leads and performs.

World Dairy Expo may seem a world removed from the dairy you face every morning in California’s San Joaquin Valley, Idaho’s Magic Valley or the Texas Panhandle. It may be the furthest thing from your mind during that stressful meeting with the lender who’s ready to cut you loose. But maybe there’s something here for you – some thread of an idea, some possible product […]

September 27, 2012
By: Ed Clark, Top Producer Business and Issues Editor

Close to 11% of the U.S. corn crop was harvested prior to Sept. 1, which makes estimating the 2012 difficult.

Drought-driven corn shortage is a world-wide problem this year. “The U.S. is not the only one having trouble,” says Joe Glauber, USDA’s chief economist.

USDA’s latest forecast calls for global corn supplies to be down 4.1% in the 2012/13 marketing year, as a major drought has hit a number of key production areas, such as the EU-27 and the Black Sea region. The one major exception is China, the world’s No. 2 corn producer whose output is forecast to be higher in 2012.

Expect stronger corn production in the upcoming cycle from South America. “We’re anticipating better weather (in Argentina and Brazil) than last year,” Glauber says. “That part of the balance sheet (for 2013-14) hasn’t yet been planted,” however.

It’s possible that U.S. corn production could decline further in the Oct. 11 NASS Crop Production report, Glauber says, because next month’s numbers will reflect changes in harvested acres, which the September report did not.

One challenge for the department this year is to accurately calculate the 2012 crop, in part because harvest began so early. More than 1 billion bushels, close to 11% of the corn crop, was harvested prior to Sept. 1, which is actually in the old crop marketing year.

Questions Surround Soybean, Wheat Production
On soybeans, there are two major questions, Glauber says. One is planting and production in South American with global supplies so tight. The other is what happens to Chinese imports. “We think they will drop off a little bit,” Glauber says.

The wheat situation is decidedly different than that for corn and soybeans. U.S. wheat production is forecast to be higher this year, although global output is forecast to be cut more than 5%, as both European and Black Sea production is lower. Small grains were not included in USDA’s September Crop Report; rather the Small Grains Summary will be released Sept. 28.

One reason for the resurgence in U.S. wheat production is because winter wheat was on its way before the drought hit, and spring wheat was less affected by the drought than corn and soybeans, Glauber says. Even though global production is down, the situation is not dire like it was in 2007-08, however, when the world literally ran out of wheat, precipitating food riots in some importing nations. Stocks this year are much higher than back then, Glauber says. “The world had a phenomenal crop in 2011/12.”

*The grain markets are higher with beans leading the way, currently up 20 cents. The bulls are closely watching the seasonal patterns to determine potential harvest lows. Historically, corn and soybeans tend to put in the seasonal low during the first week of October, (15-year pattern, Moore Research).
*The outside markets are generally quiet with crude oil and natural gas trading lower, the dollar trending higher and equities bouncing slightly.
*Japanese Central Bank announcing they will be extending monetary easing by increasing their asset purchasing fund to 700 billion. This is an attempt to counter the strength of the yen and follows the U.S. Federal Reserve announcement last week to stimulate growth through additional quantitative easing.
*China domestic crush margins improving but still in the red.
*Russia Ag Minister reducing 2012 harvest estimate to 72-73 MMT’s; down from previous estimate of 70-75 MMT’s. Exports still estimated at 10-14 MMT’s.
*News wire poll estimating U.S. corn yield at 121.0 bpa versus USDA September estimate of 122.8 bpa. News wire poll estimating U.S. soy yield at 35.8 bpa versus USDA September estimate of 35.3 bpa.
*U.S. weather outlook is wetter for the Southern Plains and into the Southern Midwest in the 6-10 day outlook. Light rains will slow harvest progress in the ECB this weekend but mostly dry weather will dominate the entire Corn Belt into late next week.
*Moderate rains are forecasted late next week in Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, Illinois and Indiana. After this event has passed, warmer and drier outlook should resume into the first week of October.
EARLY MARKET FEATURES
*The bulls resurface after a few days of liquidation.
*Rumors that China may have secured 4-5 cargoes of U.S. beans.
*Foreign and domestic feeders reportedly buyers of soymeal.