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NOVEMBER 2, 2012
By: Rhonda Brooks, Farm Journal Seeds & Production Editor

An adequate amount of seed corn is available to plant in 2013, but the popular hybrids will be in tight supply.
In the future, you may look back on 2013 as the year you were happy to get your second or even third choice of corn hybrids. That’s because industry leaders say many of the most popular hybrids will be available in only limited supplies as a result of the historic 2012 drought.
Corn hybrids hit hardest by drought this past summer were the 105-day and later maturity ones, notes Kent Schulze, an associate with Minnesota-based Cornland Consulting. Schulze estimates that 90% of the total U.S. seed corn crop was grown this year in drought-impacted areas.
“Even the best-irrigated fields in those droughty areas will come up 10% to 20% off normal yields, and I expect dryland (seed corn) acres will be worse,” Schulze says.
Heat was also a big driver in seed corn production this year, according to Dave Snedden, North America row crops manufacturing lead for Monsanto. He says prolonged high temperatures for multiple days and nights during the pollination period were just as hard on seed corn crops as the lack of moisture. To mitigate such risks, Snedden says Monsanto spreads its seed corn crop acres across the U.S. from east to west and north to south.
“Our seed crops are grown on a mix of soil types and under a variety of agronomic conditions,” adds Dan Case, DuPont Pioneer supply planning manager.
More than enough.
Seed companies routinely produce more seed than is needed in any given year. Such standard plans were in place this year.
“We planned for twice the number of acres we actually sold corn for in 2011,” says Scott Beck, vice president of Beck’s Hybrids. He adds the company has an adequate supply of its leading hybrids going into 2013.
Other companies report they also have adequate amounts of seed for farmers to plant next spring, thanks to a combination of carryover seed from previous years, summer production and winter production, explains Craig Newman, chief executive officer for AgReliant Genetics, Westfield, Ind.
Schulze says enough seed corn is available to plant 95 million corn acres in 2013 if companies clean out their warehouses and existing pipeline. “But once you get into the corner of the warehouse, people are going to get their third or fourth choice of hybrids,” he contends.
That’s not necessarily all bad, he adds, explaining that older seed products in warehouses may have higher germination and overall quality than some of the hybrids from this year.
“Farmers still need to be thinking about selecting hybrids best suited for their ground—hybrids that are solid, stable performers—and planting them in a timely manner,” says Chris Garvey, general manager of Mycogen Seeds at Dow AgroSciences.
Winter wonderland.
Seed production now underway in Argentina and Chile will play an important role in boosting the availability of hybrids for U.S. farmers next spring.
Newman estimates winter production will provide between 15% and 20% of the seed corn farmers plant […]

By Robert Burns, Texas AgriLife Extension
October 31, 2012

El Niño has fizzled, and you can forget the forecasts of a wetter, cooler Texas winter, said the state climatologist.
Though many agricultural producers may be disappointed in not having a wet winter to replenish soil-moisture levels, there’s some good news mixed with the bad, said Dr. John Nielsen-Gammon, state climatologist and regents professor at Texas A&M University.

Despite a now wavering El Niño, the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration was still predicting warmer-than-average temperatures in much of the south. But it’s less of a sure thing than it was a month or so ago when a strong El Niño was expected , said the Texas state climatologist. (NOAA contributed image)

“The closest thing to a sure bet is that this won’t be another La Niña winter,” Nielsen-Gammon said. “But next year the odds are La Niña will ramp up again, and with them the chances that next winter will be a dry one.”
As recently as late August, forecasters, including those at the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, were expecting a stronger-than-average El Niño to develop in the tropical Pacific, he said.
The earlier prediction of a strong El Niño was good news for drought recovery for most of the state, Nielsen-Gammon said. Though an El Niño’s effects are usually stronger in the southern parts of the state and along the Gulf Coast, it generally leads to wetter, cooler weather for the entire state.
Typically, the development of an El Niño begins with warmer ocean temperatures, at least about 1 degree Fahrenheit, above normal, which is what climatologists were seeing during the summer, he said. The situation, once it begins, usually results in a “feedback situation” that further raises ocean temperatures and magnifies the effect.
“As the warm temperatures spread across the Pacific, the winds weaken, allowing the warm water to remain at the surface longer before losing any of its heat,” Nielsen-Gammon said.
“However, the feedback failed to develop, and now we are expecting a neutral situation,” he said.
“Neutral situation,” means there are now equal chances of either a wet or dry winter, Nielsen-Gammon said.
“In the meantime, the tropical Pacific is likely to stay neutral, he said. This means a good chance that rainfall this spring and summer will also tend to be close to normal, to the extent that Texas weather is ever normal,” he said.

OCTOBER 26, 2012

The global supply of both corn and soybeans will tighten next year as world feed demand remains strong, according to USDA’s latest World Supply and Demand Estimates released in mid-October.
World production of corn is expected to reach 839 million metric tons, down slightly from September’s estimated 841 million metric tons. USDA now estimates that global feed demand will be 504.49 million metric tons, also down slightly from the department’s September projection of 505.84 million metric tons.
With feed demand expected to remain buoyant, the stocks-to-use ratio for the global corn supply has dropped to 13.7%. During the 2007-08 crop year, when corn prices were driven higher by a world wheat shortage, the global stocks-to-use figure was between 17 and 18%. According to Matt Roberts, agricultural economist with Ohio State University, this month’s global stocks-to-use ratio is the lowest since at least 1985.
“Why have we seen the slide in corn prices over the last six weeks? Harvest pressure. The basis has weakened as corn has come off, and for the time being we don’t have that sense of panic,” says Roberts. “When people start to look at the various scenarios of what could happen, we could see corn prices move higher.”
In its recent report, USDA estimates 2012-13 corn production in Brazil at 70 million metric tons, down slightly from the current 2011-12 crop of 72.73 million metric tons.
“If South America comes out with a big crop, that could take pressure off U.S. exports and reduce the draw on the U.S. corn supply,” says Roberts. But that’s a big if in Roberts’ mind because Brazil is just now planting its 2012 crop.
“We have not seen the demand destruction we would need to see to justify recent price declines,” he adds. “In six to eight weeks, the panic will return.”
Global Bean Supply Also Tight
USDA expects world production of soybeans to increase due to large crops in South America and expects world carryout to grow. The department projects a world bean crop in 2012-13 of 264.28 million metric tons, up 3.4% from its September estimate of 258.13 million metric tons, but still substantially smaller than the 2011-12 crop of 238.11 million metric tons.
The 2012-13 world carryout is projected to grow to 57.56 million metric tons, up from the previous year’s 54.79 million metric tons.
The global stocks-to-use ratio is now 22%, according to Roberts’ calculations. By comparison the 2008-09 ratio was 19.2%. “The soybean market is tight,” says Roberts. “USDA statistics, I believe, underestimate how tight it is.”
If, for instance, the world stocks-to-use ratio is calculated using the 2012 South American crop, the one harvested this past spring, and the North American crop being harvested now, the stocks-to-use ratio would drop to 12 or 13%. “If we just look at the calendar year, we are as tight as we have ever been in soybeans,” says Roberts.
World demand for soybeans, particularly from China remains strong. “There’s more upside in soy from now through March or April because the market is so physically tight,” says Roberts.
On […]

October 25, 2012
By: AgWeb.com Editors
By John Block, Olsson Frank Weeda Terman Matz PC

We are about 10 days away from the election. Most of the focus has been on the Presidential race. However, let’s not forget that there are 3 branches of government. We have the Executive – that’s the President; we have the legislative – the Congress; and the judicial – our judges.

Whoever gets elected as President likely will have a chance to appoint a Supreme Court Justice, assuming one of the current justices should retire over the next 4 years.

The President has a lot of power. He can help to shape the court consistent with his philosophy. He can veto legislation coming out of the Congress if he doesn’t like it. Through his leadership, he can help point the country in his preferred direction. Finally, he is “Commander in Chief” and can use our military to protect the country. He cannot declare war. That’s up to Congress. With all the focus on the President, we tend to ignore the importance of the Congress.

The Congress passes legislation to address issues of the day. The Congress appropriates money to build roads, provide food stamps, school lunches, support our military, money for everything.

Since the Congress is responsible for approving all the spending, you might think they would prepare and approve a budget. The Republican House of Representatives did. The Democrat-led Senate has not passed a budget in 3 years. How irresponsible is that?

With that as background, here is what I predict in this election:

1.With 435 House seats up, the Democrats would have to take 25 seats away from Republicans to regain control. That won’t happen. They might flip 8 or 10. The House remains Republican.
2.Republicans will add some seats in the Senate but will not be able to get a majority.
3.A month ago, it appeared to me that President Obama would hold on to win the Presidency. I’ve changed my mind. I won’t bet the farm on it, but I give the nod to Mitt Romney.

Farm programs under a Romney Presidency won’t look much different than under Obama. Romney, however, will support more relief from the death tax for farmers and small businesses. Romney will put the brakes on the EPA rush to regulate everything. A Romney Presidency will have more courage to deal with our serious debt problem.

By DAVID KESMODEL
The agriculture industry is trying to toughen up corn.

With the Farm Belt recovering from one of the worst summers of drought in decades, the companies that supply corn seeds are rolling out new strains that can survive with less water. It’s a wide-ranging, big-budget battle covering a lot of fronts, from crossbreeding crops to tinkering with the plants’ genes.

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Read the complete report .

.There is no magic bullet, researchers warn. But even incremental gains could have big results, given the size and importance of the corn crop.

Advances that produce just a 1% gain in corn yield from year to year can have “a huge economic impact,” says David Lightfoot, a geneticist at Southern Illinois University. “It’s the crop that’s grown in some of the driest areas of the Midwest, and it’s the one where progress is going to have the biggest payoff.”

Stalking the Perfect Ear
The U.S. is the world’s biggest producer and exporter of corn, generating a crop valued at $76.5 billion in 2011, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Corn also touches many parts of the economy—serving as the basis for food sweeteners, livestock feed and ethanol fuel—and poor harvests can have far-reaching repercussions.

Enlarge Image

CloseSyngenta

A trial of Syngenta’s drought-resistant corn (right) versus a conventional strain during this year’s drought.
.For years, Monsanto Co., DuPont Co. and Syngenta AG have used conventional breeding techniques and biotechnology to create corn that is hardier overall, including hybrids that hold up better when water is scarce. Their efforts—as well as improved farming practices—have reduced drought-related losses in yield for the U.S. corn crop by about 1% a year in recent decades, according to a study published in 2010 by Iowa State University researchers.

But recently the ag giants began introducing corn varieties that are specifically designed to endure drought.

Syngenta has offered a limited commercial launch of a drought-tolerant corn called Agrisure Artesian over the past two years and plans an expanded offering for next year’s planting. The seed can increase yields by as much as 15% over other hybrid corns in “a moderate to severe drought,” says Wayne Fithian, a Syngenta product manager who oversees drought-tolerant corn.

DuPont’s Optimum AQUAmax hit the market last year and was planted on about two million acres in the Corn Belt in 2012. DuPont’s agricultural arm, DuPont Pioneer, says harvest data show that in drought conditions, the corn has yields about 8% higher than leading competing hybrids.

Several farmers who planted drought-tolerant varieties this year say they are satisfied with the results. In Elgin, Neb., Philip Starman says he plans to use Optimum AQUAmax again next year after testing it for several years. The corn appeared to endure better in the drought than his other corn. “It seems like it takes a lot more stress, it’s a lot […]