klockridge

The American Farm Bureau Federation’s Spring Picnic Marketbasket Survey decreased from last year thanks to lower prices for several foods, including salad, orange juice, shredded cheddar, ground chuck, sirloin tip roast, vegetable oil, white bread, ground chuck, deli ham and orange juice. The informal survey shows the total cost of 16 food items that can be used to prepare one or more meals was $53.28, down $.59 or about 1 percent compared to a survey conducted a year ago. Of the 16 items surveyed, ten decreased and six increased in average price. Egg prices are up sharply from first quarter of 2015, a year ago but are down even more sharply from the third quarter of 2015. This shows the effect of the HPAI (High Pathogenic Avian Influenza) event last year. Prices on the beef items in the marketbasket – ground chuck and sirloin tip roast – peaked in early 2015 at record high levels. Since then, a combination of increasing beef production, weaker exports, and lower competing meat prices have led to modest price declines. Dairy product prices also remain relatively low. At $4.29 for a one-pound bag, shredded cheddar cheese price is at the lowest price in this survey since the third quarter of 2012. The whole milk price rose almost 3 percent from the third quarter of last year, but that third quarter price was the lowest price in the survey since 2010. (Source: American Farm Bureau Federation)

Macro traders are wondering if last weeks trend of crude oil moving higher and the U.S. dollar moving lower is only a brief anomaly or greater evidence of things to come? There’s a ton of moving parts this week so make certain you are paying very close attention. Below are the ones the trade seems most heavily focused on. These are also the headlines that will most directly impact the direction of the U.S. dollar and crude oil, hence ultimately deciding the overall direction of stocks and commodity prices:

• Fed Meeting: Federal Reserve officials start their two-day meeting on Tuesday. Even though most inside the trade doubt we will see any type of rate hike, there’s a very strong chance we could see more hawkish type commentary and increased   thoughts of another rate hike between now and July. Keep in mind employment has strengthened as of late and inflation appears to have gained a little nearby momentum on higher prices at the pump. 

• U.S. Presidential Campaign: The 2016 race is certainly heating up and drawing a ton of press and uncertainty amongst Wall Street traders. There’s a lot of talk as of late that the recent weakness in the U.S. dollar is a direct result of the uncertainty surrounding who will become the next U.S. president. With several “extreme” candidates still in contention the world is a bit on edge in regard to free trade, immigration, big banks, taxes, etc… The extreme “changes” being discussed make the trade nervous as nobody knows exactly how the worlds #1 economy will be altered during the next four years? Keep in mind there’s some huge presidential primaries this week in key states like Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio. Don’t forget some of these are “winner-take-all” states and could largely impact the race. 

• Crude Oil & China: There’s a ton of Chinese economic data scheduled for release this week. IN fact over the weekend it was reported that China’s industrial production during the first two months of the year grew at its slowest rate since the global financial crisis. The figures were the weakest since November 2008.  Many insiders I speak with have had little confidence through the years in the accuracy of most Chinese data. This is why crude oil prices have been so heavily influential across the trade as of late. Many insiders believe the price of crude oil tells a more accurate story about the strength of the Chinese economy. Meaning the Chinese government can release whatever data they want and tell the world they are expecting +7% growth in GDP, but when crude oil prices are betting out and the world is seemingly swimming in a glut of over-supply, it’s tough to believe the numbers. Perhaps the recent turnaround and move higher in crude oil price is an indication the trade may have gotten a bit too bearish the Chinese economy and perhaps there are some signs of a recovery, or at least a chance their latest dovish policies changes by the government has stopped the bleeding? OPEC is scheduled to release its monthly oil market report today. Investors will be looking to see whether production increased in February and what the group’s projections are for full-year output. If you recall, Saudi Arabia and fellow OPEC members Qatar and Venezuela […]
  

By Kelsey Faivre                                                                                                        February 19, 2016

A friend of mine mentioned that an agriculture professional came to speak with one of her on-campus organizations a while ago, bringing the message that every person involved in agriculture should be actively blogging and participating in social media “agvocacy” efforts. That’s a pretty common message in agriculture circles today.

Despite hearing this message, my friend still hasn’t started up a blog. Her reasoning?

“I’m not that good of a writer. I like plants, not writing, and I don’t have the time it takes to find accurate scientific information to back up my ideas. I don’t want to muddy the waters for people by contributing to an effort in a way that creates more confusion than good.”

That got me thinking. There’s no question that there is a need to educate consumers on the ways of modern agriculture. But I wonder if relative quality of advocacy messages may have an impact on consumer response and therefore the success of efforts to increase overall agriculture literacy.

It seems like everywhere you turn, agriculturalists are being encouraged to tell their stories, to be “agvocates.” In my opinion, it’s time to think a little harder about the ways we champion agriculture.

How can we advocate while recognizing our limitations of expertise?

Each individual in the agriculture industry has a different perspective and a different story to tell. But nobody is an expert on every topic! It seems like sometimes we are quick to jump to the defense of our fellow farmers, even if we don’t know all the facts about their segment of the industry. This creates confusion.

A good example of this is when some agvocates try to defend gestation stalls but confuse them with farrowing crates. This creates more of a problem, requiring experts to step in and try to provide clarification. In the resulting confusion, both the misinformed agvocates and the swine experts risk losing credibility and the industry seems like it can’t agree on a message.

Are we leaving room for more than one right answer?

The agriculture industry is not homogenous. People down the road from each other growing the same crops may make completely different management decisions for equally legitimate reasons. That’s something to celebrate and share. Advocating for a single production method while simultaneously discrediting those who use others creates confusion and resentment within the industry.

Is advocating badly more damaging than no advocacy at all?

I’m not sure there’s a right answer to this question. On one hand, there are a lot of cooks in the “agvocacy” kitchen. On the other, each of us has a different agriculture story and a different perspective, and there should be room for those in the conversation about food and farming.

Agvocacy efforts are fantastic and necessary. But are there times when inaccurate information, lack of scientific grasp, and/or difficulty communicating clearly makes for poor execution. Is it possible that it’s to the detriment of the industry? Certainly something worth pondering I would say.

Faivre was raised on a farm in Northern Illinois, where […]