Seldom is the price outlook for markets “crystal clear.” Most of the time the outlook is at least somewhat clouded. But that may be even more the case now, as there are a lot of uncertainties that could swing prices sharply up, or down.
Euro-zone fracas muddying the water Disarray in the euro-zone is very much on investors’ minds, zapping risk appetite. At the front of the pack in terms of euro-zone concerns is […]
May 10, 2012
CommonGround, a volunteer group of farm women dedicated to creating conversations around farming and food, wants to help provide moms with facts around some of the biggest food myths that exist in America.
Recently, CommonGround commissioned the Gate-to-Plate Survey to gain insights into how U.S. moms feel and think about their food and the food choices they make for their families.
More than 70 percent of moms surveyed admitted to having questions or concerns about how their food is grown or raised – a number that CommonGround volunteers […]
• Quick Editorial: fund liquidation continued to weigh on soybeans and hold down the grain complex in general overnight, and it remains by and large a bearish anticipation of the USDA’s initial new-crop tables tomorrow…
• South Korea’s MFG bought 70k tonnes of optional-origin corn for just under $273/tonne, for arrival by Nov 25; that’s the lowest they’ve paid so far in 2012, and under $1/tonne above the price they paid for wheat yesterday.
• Taiwan is seeking 48,700 tonnes of U.S. wheat, for late June-early July shipment, while Japan is looking for 120k tonnes of feed wheat and 200k tonnes of feed barley by the end of […]
Informa Economics Friday morning reportedly estimated 2012 corn planted acres at 96.124 million (up 260,000 from USDA’s March intentions); soybeans at 75.822 million (up 1.92 million from March); and other spring wheat at 13.476 million acres (up 1.5 million acres from March).
China books more corn; should drive corn carry down
As of April 26, China has booked 4.523 million metric tons (MMT) of U.S. corn for delivery in the 2011-12 marketing year. (That’s about 178 million bushels.) That’s already well ahead of USDA’s
April estimate that China would import 4 MMT of corn in the current marketing year. And that
tally does not include old-crop sales of 2.024 MMT for delivery to unknown destinations —
which likely includes some corn ultimately headed to China.
This should result in an increase in the old-crop corn export forecast in USDA’s May 10 Supply & Demand Report. In April, exports were estimated at 1.7 billion bushels. China’s “extra” bookings would add
about 21 million bu. to that estimate. And some of the nearly 80 million bu. of corn sold to
unknown destinations likely is not included in USDA’s April export projection.
But — USDA’s corn analysts could easily decide to not increase the export forecast until the bushels are actually shipped. (It has happened before.) That could leave 2011-12 corn carryover at 801 million bushels