AgResource producer sources suggest that US corn and soy conditions/yield potential have dramatically declined this week with corn not unfurling in the overnight cooling and ears that have no silks to be pollinated. Soybeans have stopped growing and are wilting under the afternoon heat. Another 3-5% decline in corn/soy GD/EX ratings is forecast for Monday with US corn yield potential now under last year’s 147 BPA. ARC argues that US 2012 soybean yield potential is under 40 BPA – and in fast retreat as larger share of the soy crop blooms.
The Central US forecast is little changed from prior days with the searing heat to relent across the Midwest on Sunday. Unfortunately, the chances for a soaking rain are poor over the next 10 days. A “ring of fire” weather/rain pattern will prevail for the next 3-4 days with showers arcing over the top if a high pressure Ridge. Rains are slated for the W and N Plains, MN, WI and MI and southeast through the Ohio Valley. Totals will range from .25-1.00”.
To the south (vast majority of the Midwest) rainfall totals are estimated in a range of .1-.6” with the frontal pass – with coverage pegged at 60-65% of
the area on Sunday/Monday. Such rain falls well short of crop needs or the ability to restore soil moisture.
Next week’s forecast calls for seasonal temps with highs ranging from the
80’s to the lower 90’s. Little or no rainfall is forecast for the Midwest as a front will be stalled across the lower Delta and the Gulf States with rainfall potential of .4-1.50”. A dry flow will persist across the Midwest into July 17
The Indian monsoon will continue to sputter for the next 10 days which is harming the soybean and ground nut crops. Crop worry is on the rise.
Without a soaking rain, any break in CBOT prices will be short lived/shallow.