China books more corn; should drive corn carry down
As of April 26, China has booked 4.523 million metric tons (MMT) of U.S. corn for delivery in the 2011-12 marketing year. (That’s about 178 million bushels.) That’s already well ahead of USDA’s
April estimate that China would import 4 MMT of corn in the current marketing year. And that
tally does not include old-crop sales of 2.024 MMT for delivery to unknown destinations —
which likely includes some corn ultimately headed to China.
This should result in an increase in the old-crop corn export forecast in USDA’s May 10 Supply & Demand Report. In April, exports were estimated at 1.7 billion bushels. China’s “extra” bookings would add
about 21 million bu. to that estimate. And some of the nearly 80 million bu. of corn sold to
unknown destinations likely is not included in USDA’s April export projection.
But — USDA’s corn analysts could easily decide to not increase the export forecast until the bushels are actually shipped. (It has happened before.) That could leave 2011-12 corn carryover at 801 million bushels
