GLOBAL – The outlook for the global meat market is largely positive, according to a joint Agricultural Outlook report from the OECD and FAO.
Current market situation
Meat prices reached record levels in 2014, driven mainly by an increasing beef price. At the same time, the Porcine Epidemic Diarrhoea virus (PEDv) in the United States and African swine fever in Europe, lowered pig meat supply in 2014 pushing pig meat prices upwards.
Sheep meat prices also increased in 2014 following several years of flock reduction in New Zealand, induced by the conversion of sheep farms to more profitable dairy operations and accentuated by drought conditions whilst substitutability among the various meats ensured firm demand and strong poultry prices.
After several years of cow herd liquidation in major producing regions, the United States bovine sector in particular started a cattle herd rebuilding phase in 2014 that sent beef prices higher.
Although herd rebuilding is expected to support beef prices in the short term, the effects of PEDv are abating and hence the price of pork and poultry should follow lower feed grain prices.
Sheep meat prices remain high along with other meats, supported by higher import demand, particularly from China for mutton and the EU for lamb, combined with flock rebuilding in Australia.
Poultry sector main beneficiary of increased consumption
The Outlook for the meat market remains largely positive, with feed grain prices set to remain low for the projection period restoring profitability in a sector that had been operating in an environment of particularly high and volatile feed costs over most of the past decade.
Production is projected to expand, as a result of increased profitability, particularly in the pig meat and poultry sectors, as well as in regions such as the Americas where feed grains are used intensively to produce meat.
However, this year’s Outlook is projecting weaker economic growth for both developed and developing countries, somewhat limiting consumption growth.
Nominal meat prices are expected to remain high throughout the outlook period, although below 2014 levels with the exception of beef which is expected to remain high for another two years, as herds are rebuilt in several parts of the world.
By 2024, prices for beef and pig meat are projected to increase to around USD 4 900/t carcass weight equivalent (c.w.e.) and USD 1 900/t c.w.e. respectively, while world sheep meat and poultry prices are expected to rise to around USD 4 350/t c.w.e. and USD 1 550/t c.w.e. respectively.
In real terms meat prices are expected to trend down from their latest high levels, although they will remain higher than in the previous decade (Figure 3.4). Global meat production rose by almost 20 per cent over the last decade, led by growth in poultry and pigmeat.
Over the next decade, global meat production will expand at a slower rate, and in 2024 will be 17 per cent higher than the base period (2012-14).
Developing countries are projected to account for the vast majority of the total increase through a more intensive […]