Archive for August, 2015

Monday, August 31, 2015 @ 07:08 AM
posted by Administrator

Global Meat Market

GLOBAL – The outlook for the global meat market is largely positive, according to a joint Agricultural Outlook report from the OECD and FAO.

Current market situation

Meat prices reached record levels in 2014, driven mainly by an increasing beef price. At the same time, the Porcine Epidemic Diarrhoea virus (PEDv) in the United States and African swine fever in Europe, lowered pig meat supply in 2014 pushing pig meat prices upwards.

Sheep meat prices also increased in 2014 following several years of flock reduction in New Zealand, induced by the conversion of sheep farms to more profitable dairy operations and accentuated by drought conditions whilst substitutability among the various meats ensured firm demand and strong poultry prices.

After several years of cow herd liquidation in major producing regions, the United States bovine sector in particular started a cattle herd rebuilding phase in 2014 that sent beef prices higher.

Although herd rebuilding is expected to support beef prices in the short term, the effects of PEDv are abating and hence the price of pork and poultry should follow lower feed grain prices.

Sheep meat prices remain high along with other meats, supported by higher import demand, particularly from China for mutton and the EU for lamb, combined with flock rebuilding in Australia.

Poultry sector main beneficiary of increased consumption

The Outlook for the meat market remains largely positive, with feed grain prices set to remain low for the projection period restoring profitability in a sector that had been operating in an environment of particularly high and volatile feed costs over most of the past decade.

Production is projected to expand, as a result of increased profitability, particularly in the pig meat and poultry sectors, as well as in regions such as the Americas where feed grains are used intensively to produce meat.

However, this year’s Outlook is projecting weaker economic growth for both developed and developing countries, somewhat limiting consumption growth.

Nominal meat prices are expected to remain high throughout the outlook period, although below 2014 levels with the exception of beef which is expected to remain high for another two years, as herds are rebuilt in several parts of the world.

By 2024, prices for beef and pig meat are projected to increase to around USD 4 900/t carcass weight equivalent (c.w.e.) and USD 1 900/t c.w.e. respectively, while world sheep meat and poultry prices are expected to rise to around USD 4 350/t c.w.e. and USD 1 550/t c.w.e. respectively.

In real terms meat prices are expected to trend down from their latest high levels, although they will remain higher than in the previous decade (Figure 3.4). Global meat production rose by almost 20 per cent over the last decade, led by growth in poultry and pigmeat.

Over the next decade, global meat production will expand at a slower rate, and in 2024 will be 17 per cent higher than the base period (2012-14).

Developing countries are projected to account for the vast majority of the total increase through a more intensive use of protein meal in feed rations in the region.

Poultry meat will capture more than half of the additional meat produced globally by 2024, compared to the base period.

In general production will also benefit from both improved meat-to-feed price margins as well as better feed conversion ratios in the next decade. Global annual meat consumption per capita is expected to reach 35.5 kg retail weight equivalent (r.w.e.) by 2024, an increase of 1.6 kg r.w.e. compared to the base period.

This additional consumption will consist mainly of poultry. Globally, per capita consumption of pig and bovine meat is expected to remain stable at levels comparable to the base period.

In absolute terms, consumption per capita of meat in developed countries is expected to remain more than double that in the developing countries (68 kg r.w.e. compared to 28 kg r.w.e. in 2024).

However, consumption growth in developed countries over the projection period is expected to remain slow relative to developing regions.

Rapid population growth and urbanization within many developing regions remains a core driver of total consumption growth.

World Meat Prices

Fast-growing meat trade in Asia and Africa

Growth in meat trade is projected to decelerate compared to the past decade.

Globally almost 11 per cent of meat output will be traded. The most significant growth in import demand originates from Asia, which captures the greatest share of additional imports for all meat types. Africa is another fast growing meat importing region albeit from a lower base.

Although developed countries are still expected to account for slightly more than half of global meat exports by 2024, their share is steadily decreasing relative to the base period.

Brazil’s share of global exports is expected to remain stable at around 21 per cent, contributing to a quarter of the expected increase in global meat exports of the projection period.

Trade policies remain one of the main factors driving the outlook and dynamics in the world meat markets. The implementation of various bilateral trade agreements over the outlook period could diversify meat trade considerably.

The outbreak of PEDv in the United States has illustrated the extent to which disease outbreaks can affect both domestic and international markets. A reduction of almost 1.5 per cent in US supplies through 2014 contributed to higher pig meat prices.

Globally, impacts of trade agreements or animal diseases vary significantly, however, depending on whether the region is an importer or exporter, as well as the magnitude of market share.

Monday, August 24, 2015 @ 10:08 AM
posted by Administrator

The Weather Channel Professional Division released their temperature forecast for the next three months from September through November. Overall, the East can expect temperatures to be warmer than average, while much of the Plains and parts of the Southwest will see a greater chance of cooler than average temperatures.

 

Temperature Forecast

Friday, August 21, 2015 @ 08:08 AM
posted by Administrator

I think it’s interesting to see how much other nations are spending on food. If you look at the graphics I’ve included below from the USDA, you can see the United States spends a smaller percentage than any other nation. To clarify, these are percentages. In an absolute sense, the United States spends more per household on food consumed at home ($2,390 per year) than, say, Nigeria ($1,343) or Russia ($1,935). But because Americans are richer, food still makes up a much smaller portion of their budgets. So as countries get richer, we find that they start spending more of their money on other things — like health care, or entertainment, or alcohol. South Koreans spent one-third of their budget on food in 1975; today that’s down to just 13 percent.

 

Food Spending Around the World

 

How much countries spend on food

 

Monday, August 17, 2015 @ 07:08 AM
posted by Administrator

Could water be the Midwest’s ticket to economic rebirth?

CYCLING to and from work along the shores of Lake Michigan in the summer months, marvelling at the brilliant turquoise water in the morning and shades of pink, purple and deep blue in the evening, ever-varying with wind and weather, is a treat for Chicagoans. The lake makes a majestic backdrop for the city’s splendid architecture, and its beaches are a meeting place for people of all classes and colors in this still segregated place.

Lakeshore Driven

 

Lake Michigan and the four other lakes in the region are also the most important asset for Chicago’s home state, Illinois, and the seven other American states that border the Great Lakes, according to a vocal school of thought in the Midwest. “We wrecked our water by leading the industrial revolution,” says John Austin, director of the Michigan Economic Centre. “Now we have to reclaim it to secure our future.”

The Midwest’s industrial boom was carried along by water. It was an important input for the car industry in Detroit, for breweries in Milwaukee, steelmakers in Gary, paper manufacturers in Muskegon and makers of furniture in Grand Rapids. Industries and communities flocked to river- and lakefronts (Chicago had both). Water lubricated the new activity—and helped transport raw materials and finished wares. The new industrialists could use water at scale—and they abused it, pouring toxic waste into the sea-like lakes.

For a long time Midwesterners ignored the damage done. It took fires on the Buffalo, Rouge, Detroit and Chicago rivers, fuelled by thick, oily sludge in the lakes and their arteries, for that to change. In 2010 the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative was born to improve water quality, clean up shorelines and restore habitats and species. Five years later, on July 28th, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) submitted a progress report on the initiative to Congress. It says that five areas of concern have been cleaned up, 148,000 acres of wetlands, islands and coastal habitat restored, phosphorus run-off from farms reduced and invasive species rebuffed.

More needs to be done to clean up the lakes and rivers, but attention is now shifting from conservation to the economic uses of abundant water. The Midwest has more than 20% of the world’s (and 80% of America’s) freshwater supply. It is trying to position itself as a centre for research and development for water-related technologies. Milwaukee’s Water Council, which promotes investment, research and jobs in water technology, wants the region to be a wetter version of Silicon Valley. Its Global Water Centre is an incubator for water-based companies. The School of Freshwater Sciences at the University of Wisconsin’s Milwaukee branch is one of only three such freshwater schools in the world (the other two are in the Netherlands and in Singapore). Milwaukee calls itself the “World Water Hub”. Delegations of visitors from around the world seem to believe it.

Curiously, given the abundance of the stuff, several corporate pioneers in water conservation and technology have their headquarters in the Midwest. Ford, a carmaker, has reduced the amount of water used per vehicle produced by 30% in recent years, by assigning pipes for workers’ drinking water in each plant and recycling all the rest, as well as by using less water to paint its cars. Cascade Engineering, a maker of car parts in Grand Rapids, produces cheap water filters for the developing world. Kohler, a Wisconsin-based maker of loos and washbasins, and Whirlpool, a maker of washing machines and dishwashers from Michigan, have joined forces to try and eliminate waste water. Over the next couple of years the companies hope to find ways to make more homes entirely self-sustaining through the collection, storage and purification of rain and snow.

In addition to becoming a home for technological innovations, the Midwest hopes to attract water-guzzling industries such as food processing and chemicals to the Great Lakes’ shores. For even if parched states such as California have their thirsty eye on the Midwest’s water, the region’s precious liquid cannot travel far. In 2008 the Great Lakes Compact between the eight states bordering the lakes and Canada’s Ontario and Quebec banned the diversion of water beyond the Great Lakes watershed, with few exceptions. Dean Amhaus, head of the Water Council, thinks climate change will in time turn water scarcity into a more pressing concern. That could in turn transform the Midwest from economic drifting to something like its former prosperity.